Recession ≠ Correction ≠ Crash

Deborah K. Vick

In the past 10 decades, dwelling builders have been busy.

Housing starts (2010-21)

But, housing supply does not have a cartel like oil suppliers have OPEC.

So, most builders & lots of town councils obtained overzealous & overbuilt stock.

As a end result, months of offer from new building is >400% that of resale models!

Months of Supply: New vs. Existing Homes (2010-22)

So now, builders are stopping new assignments although seeking to offer off existing initiatives.

Housing Market Index (2010-22)

As soon as builders begin trimming jobs en masse, building will see a housing-relevant recession.

And because building careers are a substance section of general jobs, we could a national headline economic downturn as effectively.

Home Price Growth: 2022 & 2023 Forecast

Home Prices: 1920-2022 & 2022-25 Forecast

Overall Inventory (1982-2022)

Inventory: New & Existing Homes (1982-2022)

Source from resales will hold reducing for the reason that 90% of house loan holders have a <5% mortgage. Most will become a landlord instead of selling their home.

Homeownership Rate (1940-2022)

Mortgage Credit Availability Index (2004-22)

Median Days on Market (2015-22)

And…

Homes Sold (YTD 2008-22)

Markets facing a possible 5% price correction by 2023

Why? Some cities have massively overbuilt housing inventory.

Permits Issued Per 1000 Units (2022)

You can read more here.

3 interventions from the federal government:

  1. Pare or reduce benchmark rates
  2. Resume QE of RMBS
  3. Resume mortgage forbearance

This will protect housing equity by sacrificing debt.

And, then, we’ll see another spike in home prices.

Our belief? Never bet against America.

Never Bet Against America

Note: All statements above are subject to revisions based on changing assumptions and market conditions. Figures could be rounded by +-10% for improving readability. We are neither a tax advisor nor a financial advisor and none of our statements should be interpreted as tax advice or financial advice.

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